The Virus in Three Charts

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Let’s test in on the state of the coronavirus this morning, with assist from three charts. Right here’s the primary:

As you’ll be able to see, the variety of new virus instances within the U.S. is surging — and never removed from this summer season’s peak. You’re most likely accustomed to variations of that blue line. It’s the most common metric for monitoring the virus.

The rising line principally displays actuality: The virus is surging, particularly within the Higher Midwest. Cooler climate is resulting in extra indoor exercise, which frequently results in new instances, and plenty of People appear tired of pandemic restrictions.

However you’ll discover that the crimson line on the chart — the variety of People at the moment hospitalized with virus issues — seems much less unhealthy. It has risen these days, however it isn’t near its peak.

Why? Partly as a result of the variety of virus instances just isn’t truly rising as a lot because the official case numbers recommend.

That brings us to chart No. 2:

The U.S. is conducting a lot more tests than in the summertime or spring. Extra widespread testing signifies that the official numbers are capturing a bigger share of recent virus instances than earlier this 12 months.

“We now have most likely gotten higher at discovering instances, as testing capability has elevated, and so we are able to’t immediately examine the dimensions of the waves based mostly on case counts alone,” Caitlin Rivers of Johns Hopkins College instructed me. “That’s a great growth.”

The third chart additionally suggests some encouraging information:

At the same time as case numbers have soared and hospitalizations have risen, deaths have held pretty regular.

That’s occurred as many older folks — who’re most weak — have been cautious about avoiding publicity. A higher share of present new instances is amongst younger People.

The standard of virus remedies can also be bettering. Remdesivir, dexamethasone and monoclonal antibodies all appear to assist, as my colleague Donald G. McNeil Jr. points out. Simply think about how shortly each President Trump and Chris Christie recovered, regardless of their age and underlying well being dangers.

The complete image: There are some silver linings. The statistics on new virus instances that get a lot consideration are considerably exaggerating the severity of the present outbreak, due to the rise in testing. And coverings have improved, lowering the dying depend.

However the virus’s toll has nonetheless been horrific — and worse than in lots of different international locations. Greater than 220,000 People have died, and a whole lot of individuals are nonetheless dying daily.

The general scenario can also be getting worse, because the hospitalization numbers clarify. In some states, hospitals are nearly full, and the virus continues to unfold. “I’m simply ready to see if our group can change our conduct,” Debra Konitzer, the highest well being officer in Oconto County, Wis., recently said. “In any other case, I don’t see the tip in sight.”

As Donald McNeil says, “The autumn wave has simply begun.”


  • Lives Lived: Averting last-minute crises was all in a day’s work for Bess Abell, the White Home social secretary throughout Lyndon Johnson’s administration — just like the time Johnson determined to host a celebration for each member of Congress later that very same day. Abell died at 87.

The variety of registered Republican voters in several important swing states is rising — and a few Republican officers hope it’s an indication that Trump is extra in style than polls recommend. How are you imagined to make sense of this?

First, it’s a longstanding pattern, Nate Cohn of The Occasions instructed me. Many registered Democrats, particularly white Democrats, have lengthy voted Republican with out altering their registration. Within the present polarized time, extra of them have modified their registration.

Second, many youthful folks desire to not register with both occasion, whilst they vote overwhelmingly Democratic.

Pollsters are conscious of those traits and take them under consideration. Current Occasions polls are based mostly on an more and more Republican group of registered voters — and nonetheless present a large Biden lead.

However there’s one a part of the pattern that gives some purpose for Democratic concern. Till not too long ago, the Biden marketing campaign appears to have put much less emphasis on going door-to-door to register voters than the Trump marketing campaign, as Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report has written. If that signifies that individuals who desire Biden are much less more likely to prove than Trump supporters, it might be an issue for Democrats subsequent month.

Retailer-bought rotisserie rooster and gnocchi simmered in a broth of rooster inventory and cream make up this weeknight take on chicken and dumplings.

Charleston, S.C., is a prime vacation spot wedding ceremony locale, and many individuals maintain weddings there at former slave plantations. However that could possibly be altering.

BuzzFeed News reported final 12 months that Pinterest, a social media platform that’s in style for wedding ceremony planning, restricted content material romanticizing plantations. The actor Ryan Reynolds, who married the actress Blake Full of life on a former plantation in 2012, apologized this summer season, telling Quick Firm: “What we noticed on the time was a marriage venue on Pinterest. What we noticed after was a spot constructed upon devastating tragedy.”

“What Turns into a Legend Most,” Philip Gefter’s new biography of the style photographer Richard Avedon, takes readers inside Avedon’s shoots with celebrities together with Marilyn Monroe, James Baldwin and the Beatles. “One of many achievements of Gefter’s biography is to argue persuasively for Avedon’s place, as a maker of portraits, as one of many twentieth century’s most consequential artists,” Dwight Garner writes in a review.

How did the Spelling Bee sport begin and why is it such a success? This article has the answers. As for yesterday’s version of the sport, the one pangram — the phrase that used all seven letters — was adjourn.

See if you’ll find immediately’s pangram above, in addition to another phrases which might be not less than 4 letters lengthy, use solely these letters and at all times use the letter within the center. The web model of the Bee is here; you’ll want a subscription to Occasions Video games to do play.

Right here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Hairdo goo (three letters).

Thanks for spending a part of your morning with The Occasions. See you tomorrow. — David

P.S. On Thursday, college students and academics can be part of a reside dialogue with Occasions journalists concerning the Electoral School. The free event starts at 1 p.m. Eastern.

You possibly can see today’s print front page here.

At the moment’s episode of “The Daily” is a few pivotal Senate race in North Carolina. On the newest Book Review podcast, Benjamin Lorr discusses “The Secret Lifetime of Groceries.”

Lalena Fisher, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick and Sanam Yar contributed to The Morning. You possibly can attain the staff at

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